From the living-room screen to the store shelf

At The Drop on 28 September, Best Buy announced Best Buy CTV, an offer for technology brands that combines premium streaming inventory, audience data and measurement. The company says targeting can draw on its understanding of device ownership, refresh cycles and purchase intent. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026]

The CTV system includes an expanded relationship with Amazon Fire TV and a bundle with LG and Roku. Advertisers are promised 30-second spots across streaming apps and free ad-supported streaming television (FAST), plus home-screen placements. Best Buy Ads[6] previously said that from February 2027 it would use the partnership’s programmatic technology to plan, activate, optimize and measure campaigns. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [3 · Best Buy Ads · official announcement on the expanded Fire TV partnership, 24 September 2026]

The same design extends beyond television: Best Buy is expanding creator content and turning stores into venues for demonstrations and brand activations. The retail media network is therefore aiming beyond the moment near checkout and across the journey from product discovery to an online or in-store sale. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026]

Attribution and causal impact are not the same

Best Buy also introduced multi-touch attribution intended to show the contribution of onsite and offsite media, sponsored products, paid search, CTV, social, creators, affiliates and in-store experiences. Such reporting allocates credit across touchpoints, but by itself does not answer whether a sale would have happened without the advertising. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026]

Separately, the company said it was expanding incrementality testing. This approach compares the observed result with a counterfactual outcome without exposure. Methodological research shows that incremental return on ad spend (iROAS) can be estimated with randomized paired geo experiments; Best Buy, however, disclosed neither the design, scale nor results of its new tests. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

The two tools should therefore be judged separately. Attribution is useful for daily navigation across channels, while experimentation supports causal conclusions and budget reallocation. When they are blurred, revenue credited to advertising can be mistaken for incremental sales even though they are different measures. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

What Circana’s figures mean — and what they do not prove

Best Buy’s official announcement cites a Circana study: Best Buy Ads reportedly exceeded the national media ROAS average by 17%. Although it represented 17% of analyzed media spend, it generated 35% of measured media contribution to Best Buy sales; the network was also associated with nearly 16% of media-driven sales at competing retailers and 9.9% of measured brand equity. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026]

Those values cannot be converted into profit or incremental sales without the methodology. The announcement omits absolute ROAS, observation period, number of campaigns and brands, composition of the national benchmark, attribution window, statistical uncertainty, control group and methods for estimating competitor sales and brand equity. “Measured contribution” describes modelled allocation, not necessarily causal lift. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

The materials also disclose no customer acquisition cost (CAC), gross margin, repeat purchase, advertiser retention or profit after media costs. The defensible conclusion is narrower: Best Buy has shown a more connected measurement infrastructure and strong reported results, but the commercial effectiveness of the new CTV system is not yet established. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

Expert commentary

The central shift is that Best Buy is turning knowledge about technology purchases into an asset beyond its own storefront. CTV can reach a person during entertainment, a store can provide hands-on experience and digital commerce can close the order. For brands, this is one connected commercial story; for the retailer, it is a bid to earn media revenue at several stages of the customer journey. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026]

The mechanism is especially powerful in electronics, where device ownership and likely refresh timing can indicate when interest may emerge. Yet the same precision raises the bar for trust: people need clarity about why they see a message and how their data are used. Excessive frequency or a mistaken inference about intent can damage the relationship despite attractive short-term ROAS. This risk should be tracked through complaints, personalisation opt-outs and ad-blocking behaviour. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026]

The most valuable promise is not multi-touch attribution but separate incrementality testing. Attribution asks how a model distributed credit; an experiment estimates how many purchases would not have occurred without advertising. Randomized geo experiments are one route to iROAS, but they require comparable regions, pre-specified metrics and uncertainty intervals. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

Circana’s metrics are persuasive as a signal but insufficient for an investment decision. A 17% relative advantage says nothing about absolute payback, and 35% of measured contribution may depend on model rules. Advertisers need profit after cost of goods and discounts, incremental revenue, test size and consistency across categories. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026]

For competition, this is another step toward more closed ecosystems: a retailer combines purchase data, media inventory and a physical network. Smaller brands may gain access to stronger measurement, but they also become more dependent on one platform’s rules. Comparability with other networks will require common definitions of ROAS, incrementality and measurement windows. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [2 · Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026]

Over the next two quarters, success should be judged not by the number of formats but by published experiments: the share of campaigns with controls, iROAS with confidence intervals, incremental profit, advertiser repeat bookings and customer complaints. Until then, the appropriate status is a confirmed infrastructure launch with unproven effectiveness for its new components. [1 · Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026] [4 · Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022]

Sources

  1. Best Buy · official report on The Drop, 28 September 2026 — Primary source for Best Buy CTV, attribution, incrementality testing, store activations and Circana metrics; the announcement does not disclose the study methodology.
  2. Best Buy Ads · official The Drop page, 2026 — Confirms the positioning of CTV, creator content, store formats and full-funnel measurement.
  3. Best Buy Ads · official announcement on the expanded Fire TV partnership, 24 September 2026 — Primary source for the expanded multiyear partnership and plans to use Fire TV advertising technology.
  4. Research paper · incremental ROAS with randomized paired geo experiments, 2022 — Methodological basis for distinguishing attribution from causal impact; this is not a Best Buy study.